Object structure

Title:

Backtesting analysis. How to assess the quality of PD models in a retail banking

Group publication title:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

Title in english:

Analiza backtesting. Jak ocenić jakość modeli PD w bankowości detalicznej

Creator:

Siarka, Paweł

Subject and Keywords:

backtesting ; model validation ; probability of default ; ryzyko kredytowe ; prawdopodobieństwo niewypłacalności ; PD

Description:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu = Research Papers of Wrocław University of Economics; 2019; vol. 63, nr 8, s. 230-244

Abstrakt:

The paper refers to the probability of default model validation procedure in retail banking. The author presents the idea of backtesting analysis focusing on sensitivity analysis of capital requirements under stress scenarios. The paper addresses statistical methods which can be applied in credit risk management under the backtesting exercise in retail banking. The advantages and drawbacks of specific approaches are discussed. Furthermore, the outcomes of the empirical implementation of selected methods are presented. The author considers the impact of positive asset correlation on various validation approaches, where no correlation is assumed, and proves that the zero-correlation assumptions may result in a more prudent approach. This finding was confirmed by the empirical analysis performed for retail portfolios. The research concerned PD parameters calculated for car and mortgage loans. The backtesting results revealed that PD forecasts created for mortgage portfolios underestimated credit risk during the crisis period which started in 2008. However, car loan portfolio credit risk predictions appeared to be robust

Publisher:

Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu

Place of publication:

Wrocław

Date:

2019

Resource Type:

artykuł

Resource Identifier:

doi:10.15611/pn.2019.8.18

Language:

eng

Relation:

Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu = Research Papers of Wrocław University of Economics; 2019; vol. 63, nr 8

Access Rights:

Dla wszystkich zgodnie z licencją

License:

CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 PL

Location:

Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wrocławiu